This year has not been great for Bitcoin holders. Since its 2021 boost – the world’s leading cryptocurrency went through several downward trends due to world nations entering recessions and raising interest rates in order to fight inflation in the post-Covid economy.
Despite the dreaded “crypto winter”, Bitcoin’s price has an enormous potential of jumping up in price in the following years – at least according to a recent analysis by Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at crypto services provider Matrixport.
The notion that Bitcoin might grow over 100% in value in the next two years might seem absurd. But Matrixport’s analysis is based on the fact that Bitcoin has always seen an appreciation in value before the cryptocurrency goes through its “halving” process.
The “Bitcoin Halving” is an event that happens when Bitcoin cuts its mining rewards in half. Even as demand rises, halvings diminish the rate at which new coins are minted, lowering the available quantity of fresh supply.
On the two occasions in Bitcoins history a halving occurred (July 2016 and April 2020), BTC gained considerable value before and after the event.
In both occurrences, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization saw a major upwards trend that lasted around 15 months – whereas in the following month after the halving, Bitcoin went up by 39%.
“Prices started to rally 15 months before the next halving (November 2022) and they tend to finish 39% from where they traded 24 months prior.” Markus Thielen remarked on Matrix on Target Note. “This would imply that bitcoin trades around $63,160 by March 2024.”
Not a Guarantee
As with everything in investments, past historical events are only an indication of what could happen in the future of an asset. The fact that bitcoin went through an appreciation in the past halvings makes it likely that the same thing will happen in the future, but is far from a certainty.
Cryptocurrencies are ever-evolving, and 2016/2020 bitcoin is far different from today. At the time – the feeling of uncertainty regarding cryptocurrencies was a lot bigger than today.
However, the indications that cryptocurrencies are beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel grow bigger every day.
The SEC is starting to hint that its interest rate raising policies are beginning to come to a halt. Meanwhile, several multi-billion dollar companies like Google, Meta, and Twitter are investing heavily in the future of web3.
On that note, Thielen also mentioned that China – one of the world’s biggest economies – is now beginning to tone down its previous harsh views on cryptocurrency.
According to him, the fact that Hong Kong is about to legalize retail crypto trading – looking to become one of the world’s largest crypto hubs – is an indication that Asia will likely become an even big player in the promotion of crypto worldwide.